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How Zelensky is Losing His Halo, May Soon Outlive His Usefulness for West_我的网站

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一 | The Zelensky narrative used by western media "has palpably shifted" over the last few weeks, according to Steve Cortes, a US political consultant, market strategist and former Trump campaign adviser.,This shift particularly comes in relation to the latest CBS News report which alleged that "much of the billions of dollars of military aid that the US is sending to Ukraine doesn't make it to the front lines." Cortes also cites the New York Times' Thomas L. Friedman, who admitted earlier this month that "there is deep mistrust between the White House and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine — considerably more than has been reported.",Concerns also appear to be simmering over Zelensky firing his prosecutor general and intelligence chief on July 18 without explanations. "I have still not seen any reporting that convincingly explains what that was all about," Friedman wrote. "It is as if we don’t want to look too closely under the hood in Kiev for fear of what corruption or antics we might see, when we have invested so much there.",Similarly, German newspaper Die Welt once again shed light on Zelensky's offshore network schemes on August 3, as exposed by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) in October 2021. It also revealed Kiev's apparent role in cancelling a Ukrainian documentary "Offshore 95 – President Zelensky's Secret Deals" last year.,The press reports were also preceded by GOP Representative Victoria Spartz's push for more oversight of US aid to Kiev amid suspicions of corruption within the Zelensky cabinet.,RussiaUS Analyst: Time Has Come for American Politicians to Hold Kiev Responsible for Endemic Corruption23 July, 13:03 GMT,Zelensky & Kolomoisky,Accusations of corruption are threatening to strip the Ukrainian president of his heroic "halo." On July 20, investigative journalist and managing editor of CovertAction Magazine, Jeremy Kuzmarov, provided details of Zelensky's longstanding ties to Ukrainian oligarch Igor Kolomoisky.,Kolomoisky has been under FBI investigation for financial crimes, including money laundering, for the past few years. The Ukrainian oligarch is also known for funding and supporting notorious neo-Nazi and ultra-nationalist battalions including Azov*, Aidar, Donbas, Dnepr 1, and Dnepr 2, in 2014. According to Kuzmarov, these military units "were sometimes deployed as personal thug squads to protect Kolomoisky’s financial interests.",In January 2022, the US Department of Justice filed a civil forfeiture complaint alleging that Kolomoisky and his associate Gennadiy Bogolyubov, who owned Ukraine's PrivatBank, embezzled and defrauded the financial institution for $5.5 billion.,Judging from the Pandora Papers, Zelensky and his partners in his Kvartal 95 television production company founded a network of offshore companies in 2012 just as they started to cooperate with Kolomoisky's TV stations.,Four days after the release of Kuzmarov's exposé this year, reports emerged indicating that Zelensky had stripped Kolomoisky of his Ukrainian citizenship alongside another two Ukrainian oligarchs.,"I am not sure what is behind the decision to strip Kolomoisky of citizenship but it could be an attempt to improve Zelensky's public image and try and distance himself from his former backer because of the corruption scandals and legal problems Kolomoisky is facing," says Kuzmarov. "We see a similar thing in US politics, for example, when Barack Obama distanced himself from Tony Rezko, a highly corrupt backer of his in the state of Illinois (when Obama was a state senator) who was jailed for corruption.",According to the investigative journalist, "at this stage, Zelensky may feel he does not need Kolomoisky's support anymore especially given that he is being provided billions of dollars of weapons and aid from the US and West.","[Kolomoisky] has only become a liability with the indictments he faces in the US," the journalist continues.,In addition, Zelensky fired his long-time associate State Security Service (SBU) head Ivan Bakanov, who is now subject of an investigation. In October 2021, Bakanov was mentioned in the Pandora Papers as Zelensky's partner in the offshore network.,"It could all be related, yes, that Zelensky is trying to distance himself from his former close associates who are being set up to take the fall for the corruption that Zelensky is implicated in too," says Kuzmarov. "Zelensky may feel that he has powerful protectors in the 'international community'.",WorldBigwigs, Bucks & Biolabs: US Establishment Has a Lot of Skeletons in Ukraine's Closet, Analyst Says13 May, 12:00 GMT,Corruption Outside Ukraine,Meanwhile, the story of Ukrainian corruption appears to be bigger than Zelensky's apparent financial machinations and links to the oligarchy, according to Wall Street analyst Charles Ortel.,"For a blinkered mainstream press, Kolomoisky readily can be sold as a convenient scapegoat considering his deeply suspicious and repugnant history. That said, who are the true puppeteers inside Ukraine? Are they governments, billionaire investors or both?" asks Ortel. "Considering the many ways in which state-owned assets and aid ostensibly for Ukraine have already been plundered, the period from 1991 forward and more recently from 2004 and then 2014 forward may well be used for decades to demonstrate that there is no honor among thieves, and great danger for populations when political corruption is encouraged.",The Wall Street analyst alleges that Ukraine provided a certain financial bonanza for US dynastical families, including the Clintons and the Bidens, well before Zelensky came to power. As such, Ukrainian oligarch Victor Pinchuk, who is also the son-in-law of former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, generously donated to the Clinton charity, prompting suspicions of a "pay-to-play" scheme.,Likewise, Republican lawmakers have long been looking into apparent influence peddling involving then-Vice President Joe Biden's son, Hunter, who sat on the board of Ukrainian gas firm Burisma and was reportedly paid a staggering $83,333 per month. According to Miranda Devine's book "Laptop from Hell," Burisma slashed Hunter's salary in half two months after his father ceased to be vice president.,© AP Photo / Sarahbeth ManeyFILE - Members of Congress give Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky a standing ovation before he speaks in a virtual address to Congress in the U.S. Capitol Visitors Center Congressional Auditorium in Washington, on Wednesday, March 16, 2022FILE - Members of Congress give Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky a standing ovation before he speaks in a virtual address to Congress in the U.S. Capitol Visitors Center Congressional Auditorium in Washington, on Wednesday, March 16, 2022© AP Photo / Sarahbeth Maney,Zelensky Not Indispensable for West,"With so many worries distracting voters in key nations, and given his status for a time as one-part Greta Thunberg scold and a second part Tony Fauci hero, Zelensky may believe he has secured a permanent 'White Hat' role, and that he never will be called to account for massive corruption to which he and many others seem connected," explained Ortel.,However, Zelensky shouldn't delude himself into believing that he is "indispensible" in the eyes of the western political establishment, according to the analyst. As such, Thomas L. Friedman's notion that the Biden administration and the Ukrainian president are not on the same page should come as a potential warning for Kiev’s man.,For his part, National Review's Jim Geraghty suggests that the NYT leak that the White House does not trust the Ukrainian president could mean two things.,"Possibility one is that the Biden administration just wants the Ukraine-Russia war to end, and Zelensky isn’t playing ball, so the administration is getting ready to leave Zelensky hanging out to dry," Geraghty wrote on August 2. "Possibility two is that the administration foresees the Ukraine-Russia war going badly, and is preparing to use Zelensky as a scapegoat.",In any event, the Biden administration appears to be laying the groundwork to argue, "We did everything we could to help the Ukrainians defend themselves, but in the end, they were too incompetent, too corrupt, and too beset by infighting," according to Geraghty.,"It is difficult to predict when Zelensky will outlive his usefulness and get cast aside but that day is coming, whether in retaliation by a vindictive erstwhile ally or in military action or otherwise," Ortel concludes.,*Azov Battalion is a terrorist group banned in Russia.。

二 | K图 000001_0 K图 600519_0 　　8月24日，市场全天震荡调整，创业板指、科创50盘中一度跌超4%，尾盘跌幅有所收窄。截至收盘，沪指跌0.59%，深成指跌2.13%，创业板指跌3.21%。

三 |
　　板块来看，黄金概念走强，煤炭板块再度活跃，农业板块全天强势，航运板块逆势活跃。下跌方面，算力硬件股大面积走弱。　　全市场近4000股下跌。沪深两市成交额2.01万亿元，较上一个交易日放量1282亿。

四 | 　　8月行情已进入收尾阶段，但A股仍处于“解铃还须系铃人”的状态。　　用大白话来说，主要股指在二季度大涨、7月份大跌，乃至8月前两周的反弹，都与科技权重股的表现深度绑定。

五 | 　　即便是科技股占比偏少的沪指，在反弹和调整的大节奏上，也无法做到完全独立。

六 | 　　当下来看，如果希望大盘短期重拾涨势，最能拉升指数的依旧是科技方向——但“有能力”并不等同于“有动力”，甚至偶尔出现反向的情形。

七 | 　　比如今天，“易中天”同步大跌，中际旭创盘中总市值跌破1万亿元；这让整个算力硬件方向承压，大量科技股（不用看名字和概念）的走势都如下图一样。　　有分析认为，引发CPO大跌的导火索可能与“SK海力士宣布押注下一代CPO”有关。另一方面，英伟达宣布，CPO技术正式迈入规模化量产阶段，其合作伙伴名单引发市场关注，可能也改变了资金的预期。　　当科技方向日内“主动”走弱，活跃资金就“被迫”选择避险，煤炭、种业、大金融，甚至白酒板块今天都出现局部活跃，贵州茅台在千元股中逆势走强，股价重新站上1300元关口。　　防守端的走强，却难以带动指数翻红。这一幕，相信近期持续盯盘的股民，不会感到陌生。

八 | 　　不过，今天讨论的重点并不在板块，而是“大势”。　　如果说上周后半周的短暂企稳，让市场短线仍然“可上可下”；那么今天的下跌，主要明确了一件事——主要指数均回到了“二次探底”的状态。　　沪指方面，此前我们反复提及的3884一线，在收盘时略微失守，由此回落至上一个震荡区间。　　双创指数方面，二者也都正在接近7月底8月初的低点。

九 | 　　而对万得全A代表的整个大盘来说，这是近一个多月以来第3次出现回踩动作。　　也正因为下方不远处就是两度探明的底部，即便刚刚经历了单日大跌，我们也不应过度悲观。除了尾盘已经出现的“走V”，这里再分享两层逻辑。

十 | 　　首先，市场已经来到“托市资金”的买入区间。　　以创业板ETF易方达（159915）为例，数据显示，该产品今天盘中获得超5亿份净申购，对应10亿元以上的资金净流入。（注：深市ETF盘中可以看到实时申赎数据，沪市ETF暂不可见）　　尾盘，创业板指的跌幅也有相应收窄。　　此前，在7月17日、7月20日，和7月28日至30日，该产品连续出现了两波较大规模的资金净流入，对应了两次“探底回升”的尝试（一次失败、一次成功）。　　而在上周三（8月19日）的大跌中，托市资金已出现大笔净申购的动作。　　“托市资金”的买入，虽不能说一定立刻带来反弹，但显然是市场继续下行的“阻力”。　　其次，如本文开头所说，“解铃还需系铃人”是当下明牌逻辑，讨论大盘的趋势，也离不开分析科技股的走势。　　申万宏源策略团队认为，超跌反弹后，AI产业扰动再次出现，叠加了美债收益率高企担忧，出现了二次探底行情。　　该机构称，中短期判断不变，反弹可能延续到9月下旬，行稳致远政策发力，长中短期乐观预期可能集中发酵，这可能才是本轮反弹行情的高点。　　“资金正循环难快速回到6月底状态，AI链创新高需要基本面预期超越6月底。相对2025年以来的经验，本轮AI链行情重启所需的产业催化级别更高，所需的时间大概率也更长。